Phil 585

Decision Theory and Rationality

This course number is listed in the catalog as a seminar in philosophy of science. However, I have decided to run the seminar on a somewhat different topic.

Decision theory is a mathematical theory relating desire, belief, and preference of rational agents. It has been used descriptively to interpret the observed behavior of agents, as well as normatively to give constraints on the future behavior of agents. In this semester we will first look at some of these formal theories, and then consider issues in the foundations of these theories, looking especially at the normative significance of various distinctions that are made.

No background in formal epistemology or decision theory is required - I will help explain technical material so that it is accessible for newcomers, but further readings will be available for those who want to go into further depth.

Students that are enrolled in the class will do an in-class presentation on one of the topics, and write a term paper on a topic in decision theory by the end of the semester.

Aug. 24, Introduction

Aug. 31, Representation of preferences

Frank Ramsey, "Truth and probability"

Sept. 7, Savage's theory

Leonard Savage, The Foundations of Statistics (warning, large files!)

Chapters 1-2 - read all of these chapters (pp. 8-9 were accidentally left out of the scan)

Chapter 3 - read sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 up to the statement of the theorem

Chapter 4 - optional, but many interesting issues

Chapter 5 - read 5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 5.6, and look at 5.3, 5.4

Sept. 14, Jeffrey's theory

Richard Jeffrey, The Logic of Decision

Chapter 1 - read 1.1-1.5. The exercises in 1.6 and discussion after are interesting but raise too many issues for us to deal with now.

Chapter 2 - read all of it

Chapter 3 - optional, mainly as a clarification of Ramsey's view (but without the logical atomism)

Chapter 4 - read 4.1-4.5. 4.6 to the end may be useful (and you may want to at least look at the notation) but may be familiar if you have some philosophy of language

Chapter 5 - read all of it

Sept. 21, Representation theorems and interpretation

David Lewis, "Radical interpretation"

Donald Davidson, "Could there be a science of rationality?"

Sept. 28, Formal or real theories of utility

Amartya Sen, "Behaviour and the concept of preference"

Jamie Dreier, "Rational Preference: Decision theory as a theory of practical rationality"

(presentation by Aness Webster)

Oct. 5, What is an action?

Frank Jackson and Robert Pargetter, "Oughts, Options, and Actualism"

Brian Hedden, "Options and the Subjective Ought" (version available here)

(presentation by Steve Bero)