Publications
I work in the areas of epistemology, decision theory, and the philosophy of mathematics. I am currently thinking about analogies between individual and collective decision making, with lessons to be drawn in both directions.
My work in epistemology focuses on the mathematical notions of probability theory, and how they can help clarify the pre-theoretic notions of belief, justification, knowledge, and the like. In particular, my research has focused on cases involving probability zero, and what they can show about the notions of conditional and unconditional probability in other cases. More recent work considers a notion of coherence for full beliefs that is derived from considerations of truth, and shows how this notion can clarify our understanding of degree of belief.
In the philosophy of mathematics I am particularly interested in set theory and its foundations, and in the role that the social practices of mathematics play in the development of mathematical knowledge — in particular, the constraints those practices put on the notions of proof that are acceptable to mathematicians. My work in decision theory primarily deals with alternatives to expected utility that agree with it in finite cases, but allow for more subtle distinctions among infinitary decision problems.
Media and public writing
- Appearance in a Veritasium video about the Newcomb Problem (2026)
- Quoted in Le Monde on the epistemology of early COVID cases (November 2024)
- Quoted in The Atlantic on “win probability” in sports (October 2024)
- Appearance in A Trip to Infinity on Netflix (2022)
- “Cities after COVID”, The Philosophers’ Magazine (2022) (magazine)
- Interview in The Reasoner, with Bill D’Alessandro (2021)
- “100 Philosophers, 100 Artworks: Die Walküre“, Aesthetics for Birds (2021)
- “What is it like to be a philosopher of Asian-American descent?”, APA Newsletter on Asian and Asian American Philosophers and Philosophy (2020)
- Interview at Think About Sport, with Ben Genta (2019)
- “Mutualistic Anteraction”, the Daily Ant, hosted by Benjamin Blanchard (October 2017)
- Appearance on the Rationally Speaking podcast, with Julia Galef (August 2015)
- Appearance on Philosophy TV, with Jonathan Weisberg (July 2011)
Book
- The Philosophical Foundations of Bayesianism: An Opinionated Introduction. Routledge, (2026).
Research articles
- “Generalizations of Risk-Weighted Expected Utility.” Forthcoming in Economics and Philosophy. (journal)
- (with Reuben Stern) “Diachronic and Interpersonal Coherence.” Forthcoming in Towards an Expansive Epistemology: Norms, Action, and the Social Sphere, eds. Amy Flowerree and Baron Reed.
- (with Michael Nielsen) “Updating by Maximizing Expected Accuracy in Infinite, Non-Partitional Settings.” Journal of Philosophical Logic 54:5, (2025), 1095-1134. (journal)
- (with Ben Levinstein and Ted Shear) “Tickles, Iteration, and Habits.” Theory and Decision, (2025). (journal)
- “Bullshit Activities.” Analytic Philosophy 66:3, (2025), 306-328. (journal)
- “A New Method for Value Aggregation.” Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 121:3, (2021), 299-326. (journal)
- (with Matthew Sheldon and collaborators) “Markov Chains for Modeling Complex Luminescence, Absorption, and Scattering in Nanophotonic Systems.” Optics Express 29, (2021), 4249-4269.
- “A Classification of Newcomb Problems and Decision Theories.” Synthese 198, (2021), 6415-6434. (journal)
- “The Concept of Rationality for a City.” Topoi 40, (2021), 409-421. (journal)
- (with Reuben Stern) “The Many Ways to Achieve Diachronic Unity.” Self Control, Decision Theory, and Rationality, ed. José Luis Bermúdez, Cambridge University Press, (2018), 240-263. (publisher)
- (with 71 other authors) “Redefining Statistical Significance.” Nature Human Behaviour 2, (2017), 6-10. (journal)
- “The Tripartite Role of Belief: Evidence, Truth, and Action.” Res Philosophica 94:2, (2017), 189-206. (journal)
- “Dr. Truthlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Bayesian Probabilities.” Noûs 50:4, (2016), 816-853. (journal) Selected for Philosopher’s Annual, 2015
- (with Luke Fenton-Glynn, Chris Hitchcock, and Joel Velasco) “Updating on the Credences of Others: Disagreement, Agreement, and Synergy.” Philosophers’ Imprint 16:11, (2016), 1-39. (journal)
- “Rebutting and Undercutting in Mathematics.” Philosophical Perspectives 29:1, (2015), 146-162. (journal)
- (with Branden Fitelson) “Accuracy, Coherence, and Evidence.” Oxford Studies in Epistemology, (2015), 61-96. (publisher)
- (with Ray Briggs, Fabrizio Cariani, and Branden Fitelson) “Individual Coherence and Group Coherence.” Essays in Collective Epistemology, ed. Jennifer Lackey, Oxford University Press, (2014), 215-239. (publisher)
- “Why Physics Uses Second Derivatives.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 65:4, (2014), 845-862. (journal)
- “Principal Values and Weak Expectations.” Mind 123:490, (2014), 517-531. (journal)
- “Decision Theory without Representation Theorems.” Philosophers’ Imprint 14:27, (2014), 1-30. (journal) Selected for Philosopher’s Annual, 2014
- “Regularity and Hyperreal Credences.” The Philosophical Review 123:1, (2014), 1-41. (journal)
- “Why Countable Additivity?” Thought 2, (2013), 53-61. (journal) Stewart and Nielsen have challenged the core of this paper, and Seidenfeld, Kadane, Schervish, and Stern have argued that there are problems for both my paper and Stewart and Nielsen’s. I have written a guide to their paper clarifying what they do and don’t show, and why I am mostly unmoved by their arguments — though I am less convinced that there is significant work for comparative probability than I thought in the earlier paper.
- “Expected Accuracy Supports Conditionalization — and Conglomerability and Reflection.” Philosophy of Science 80:1, (2013), 119-142. (journal)
- (with Branden Fitelson) “An ‘Evidentialist’ Worry about Joyce’s Argument for Probabilism.” Dialectica 66:3, (2012), 425-433. (journal)
- (with Bradley Monton) “Mixed strategies, uncountable times, and Pascal’s Wager: a reply to Robertson.” Analysis 72:4, (2012), 681-685. (journal)
- “Varieties of Conditional Probability.” Handbook of the Philosophy of Science: Philosophy of Statistics, eds. Prasanta Bandyopadhyay and Malcolm Forster, North-Holland, (2011), 137-148. (publisher)
- “Probabilistic Proofs and Transferability.” Philosophia Mathematica 17:3, (2009), 341-362. (journal)
- “Strong and Weak Expectations.” Mind 117:467, (2008), 633-641. (journal)
- (with Mark Colyvan) “Mathematical and Physical Continuity.” The Australasian Journal of Logic 6, (2008), 87-93. (journal)
- “The Role of Axioms in Mathematics.” Erkenntnis 68:3, (2008), 381-391. (journal)
Expository and survey work
- “Bayesian and Rational Choice Approaches to Measuring Confidence.” Forthcoming in Oxford Handbook of the Cognitive Science of Belief, eds. Tania Lombrozo and Neil Van Leeuwen. Chapter 34
- “Knowledge, Symbols, and Understanding.” The Philosophy of Ted Chiang, ed. David Friedell, (2025). (publisher)
- (with Alan Hájek, Paolo Mancosu, and Graham Oppy) “Infinity.” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Ed Zalta, (2021). Revised 2025
- “Conditional Probabilities.” Open Handbook of Formal Epistemology, eds. Richard Pettigrew and Jonathan Weisberg, (2019), 131-198. (publisher) Chapter 4
- “Conditional Probability.” The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Chris Hitchcock, (2016), 167-182. Chapter 9
- “Formal Epistemology.” Journal of Philosophical Logic 44:6, (2015), 651-662. (journal)
- “Probability and Logic.” Philosophy Compass 9:12, (2014), 876-883. (journal)
- “Bibliography on Bayesianism.” Oxford Bibliographies Online, (2013).
- “Dutch Book Arguments.” The Encyclopedia of the Mind, ed. Hal Pashler, (2013). (publisher)
- “Bayesianism II: Applications and Criticisms.” Philosophy Compass 6, (2011), 321-332. (journal)
- “Bayesianism I: Introduction and Arguments in Favor.” Philosophy Compass 6, (2011), 312-320. (journal)
- “Logic and Probability.” Journal of the Indian Council of Philosophical Research XXVII:2, (2010), 209-231.
- “A Cheerful Introduction to Forcing and the Continuum Hypothesis.” arXiv, (2007). (arXiv)
Book reviews
- “Review of Rationality and Belief, by Ralph Wedgwood.” Mind, (2025). (journal)
- “Review of Infinity, Causation, and Paradox, by Alexander Pruss.” Mind, (2019). (journal)
- “Review of Probabilistic Knowledge, by Sarah Moss.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, (2018).
- “Review of Reasons without Persons, by Brian Hedden.” The Journal of Philosophy 114:2, (2017), 105-110. (journal)
- “Review of Accuracy and the Laws of Credence, by Richard Pettigrew.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, (2016).
- “Review of Quitting Certainties, by Michael Titelbaum.” The Philosophical Review 125:1, (2016), 143-148. (journal)
- “Review of From Zeno to Arbitrage, by Brian Skyrms.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, (2013).
- “Review of The Evolution of Logic, by W. D. Hart.” Bulletin of Symbolic Logic 17:4, (2011), 533-535. (journal)
- “Review of By Parallel Reasoning, by Paul Bartha.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, (2011).
- “Review of Representation, Evidence, and Justification: Themes from Suppes.” Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews, (2009).
- “Review of Tracking Reason: Proof, Consequence, and Truth, by Jody Azzouni.” The Philosophical Review 117:2, (2008), 296-299. (journal)
- “Review of Ambiguity and Logic, by Frederic Schick.” Mind 116, (2007), 478-482. (journal)
Work in progress
(with Henry Towsner) “Realism in Mathematics: The Case of the Hyperreals”. Distinguishes two types of realism one might have about the existence of a class of mathematical objects: factualism (there is a fact of the matter about whether the entities exist, and they exist in whatever sense any mathematical entities do) and applicabilism (the entities can play a role in accurate description of the physical world). Argues that the hyperreals of non-standard analysis — and in general, any entity whose existence proof depends on the Axiom of Choice — have the former but not the latter, responding to existing arguments that they either have both or lack both.
(with Reuben Stern) “Two Dimensions of Collective Agency”. Argues that collective agency can occur either “horizontally” (multiple individuals share goals and coordinate their behavior to achieve them) or “vertically” (multiple agents have different goals, but each behaves in a way that gets the other to realize theirs), and that most collective action involves aspects of both dimensions.
In hiatus
(with Ryan Muldoon) “The Newcomb Trolley Problem”. Argues that a regulatory approach to the Trolley problem for self-driving cars produces a Newcomb problem for manufacturers, who want regulators to predict them to behave socially while riders reap the benefits of anti-social behavior.
“Testimony and Autonomy in Mathematics”. Considers the knowledge of the mathematical community as an epistemic fact beyond the knowledge of individual mathematicians. Argues that the community has the goal of achieving “autonomous” knowledge that doesn’t depend on the testimony of individual mathematicians, even though individual mathematicians always depend on testimony — and that this explains community practices of rejecting certain types of argument that otherwise seem fit to give knowledge.
“The Tarski–Gödel Thesis”. Analyzes the arguments of Tarski and Gödel to show that they depend on a thesis akin to the Church–Turing thesis: that the mathematical analysis of the notion of a finite sequence is correct. Shows that, regardless of the ontology of mathematics, this thesis entails that the set of correct mathematical claims is not coextensive with the consequences of any particular set of axioms, and that rejecting it requires something like ultrafinitism.
Dissertation
“The Foundations of Conditional Probability”. UC Berkeley, Group in Logic and the Methodology of Science, 2008. Committee: Branden Fitelson (chair), John MacFarlane, Paolo Mancosu, Sherrilyn Roush, and Tom Griffiths (outside member, psychology).
I investigate the Bayesian notion of probability as a measure of degree of belief, and argue that the correct mathematical formalism for conditional probability in this setting is neither P(A&B)/P(B), as traditionally assumed, nor a Popperian account that takes conditional probability as more basic than unconditional probability, but rather an account that is more standard in the mathematics of measure theory. On this account the conditional probability for an agent of an event A given an event B depends additionally on what set of alternatives to B is relevant.